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Social Security beneficiaries are likely to see a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026 due to persistent inflation, according to recent estimates. The COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures average annual inflation from July through September. The final adjustment will be announced after the release of September's CPI data in mid-October.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates a 2.7% COLA increase, while the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts a slightly higher 2.8% adjustment. This increase would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by approximately $54, from $2,008 to $2,062.
The official COLA will be announced in October, following the release of September's inflation data.
The anticipated increase is higher than the 2.5% adjustment in 2025 but lower than the record 8.7% increase in 2023. The adjustments are crucial for many seniors, as Social Security is often their primary source of inflation-protected income. However, rising costs in other areas, such as Medicare premiums and tariffs, may offset the benefit of the COLA, according to USA Today.